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  • Masoud Dalvand 10:31 am on 5 Aug 2018 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , Iran Deal Withdrawl, , , , , ,   

    Early Consequences of Sanctions Against Iran 

    Early Consequences of Sanctions Against Iran

    By Masoud Dalvand

    These days, the heated and controversial discussion of Iran’s sanctions has attracted attention and put the ruling mullahs in Iran at a deadly deadlock.

    Sanctions against Iran, in particular the sanctions on Iran’s oil, are actions taken by some countries in the world to propose a United States to prevent or restrict Iran’s nuclear program. The sanctions are aimed at removing the mullah’s regime from oil revenues and forcing them to cooperate with the international community to stop the construction of nuclear weapons and nuclear warheads.

    These sanctions are imposed through an immediate solution, i.e. boycott of purchases or buyers, or indirect ones, such as boycotting tanker ships or boycotting banks, with the aim of eliminating the purchasers of the oil and turning them to other suppliers of this commodity.

    Following US withdrawal from Iran deal or JCPOA on May 8, 2018, the US Treasury Department announced that sanctions against Iran would commence again in the 90th and 180th days after the withdrawal of Iran deal.

    Accordingly, the first US embargo against Iran will begin on August 6, 2018, and after this deadlock, the Iranian regime will not be able to buy the US dollar or trade gold or other commodities.

    In addition, sanctions against Iran will be imposed in the area of ​​aluminum, steel, coal, Dollar exchange and automobile industry, and significant restrictions will be imposed on transactions with Rial outside Iran.

    Iran-Root-Cause-of-Economic-Crisis

    The second US sanctions package against Iran will be operational on November 4, 2018.

    From now on, international restrictions will apply to the activities of the National Iranian Oil Company and the purchase of oil, petrochemicals and petroleum products from Iran will be subject to sanctions.

    The Iranian shipping industry, the activities of the Central Bank of Iran and the Western financial institutions, as well as those whose names were removed from the sanctions list on January 16, 2016, would be subject to further sanctions.

    The Consequences of the first phase of the sanctions

    At this point, those who came to Iran with a deal with sanctions are back to the sanctions list.

    It should be kept in mind that Iran was one of the world’s largest oil producers and issued billions of dollars of oil and gas annually. But Iran’s oil production, along with its GDP, fell dramatically with international sanctions.

    At the same time, it should be borne in mind that such sanctions will go beyond the scope of the relationship between Iran and the United States, in such a way that all non-US companies that interact with the Iranian market will aim at unilateral US sanctions.

    At a news conference July 2, State Department Policy Planning Director Brian Hook, said that Washington is “safe enough” to supply oil to replace Iran’s crude oil.

    The US goal is “to increase the pressure on the Iranian regime to cut its oil revenues and bring it to zero.”

    This equilibrium will be offset by OPEC, India and Saudi Arabia.

    The Consequences of the second phase of the sanctions

    According to US sanctions, the US Treasury Department will review the performance of the Iranian oil purchasers six months after the withdrawal from Iran deal (November 2018) and, if they have not complied with the sanctions law, countries banks that buy Iran oil and pay to the Central Bank of Iran (such as Chinese, Korean or Indian banks) are subject to sanctions. The United States has announced that all countries and companies that will cooperate with Iran after November 4, 2018 will be subject to US sanctions.

    What is the real solution to the crisis?

    Now and after all the sanctions and political and economic equations, the people of Iran say the last words. They want a government that, instead of investing heavily in terrorism, promote peace and prosperity and peaceful coexistence with its neighbors.

    As Mariam Rajavi, President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), recently said in a statement:

    The disastrous state of the economy and the foreign exchange market is the direct product of the regime’s depravity. The free fall of the value of Rial to the world’s lowest is a consequence of the rule of the mullahs who have destroyed everything to preserve their power.

    The mullahs have no solution for containing the chaotic state of the economy and all their measures and plans have failed. Sacking the Central Bank’s president, arresting bazaar merchants, spreading lies and false pretenses are no longer effective.

    Iran’s crumbling economy cannot be saved unless by toppling the regime.

    Hence, in these days, more courageous than ever, the Iranian people in Tehran, Mashhad, Karaj, Shiraz, Isfahan and Rasht and other cities scream the overthrow of the religious dictatorship and say death to the dictator. It is the right of the Iranian people to live in peace and freedom and in a democratic country, with a prosperous economy. Enough of war and destruction, terrorism and corruption and poverty.

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  • Masoud Dalvand 8:00 am on 12 Jun 2018 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , Iran Deal Withdrawl,   

    Iran: What Options Remain? 

    free-iran-2018-800

    Last month, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States is exiting the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, ending months of speculation. European leaders were calling on Trump to remain party to the deal, but he refused. In his speech, Trump pointed out that the nuclear deal was founded on lies and deception. Furthermore, Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed and the billions of dollars that Iran benefitted from as a result of the lifting of sanctions was plundered on terrorist activities and the financing of proxy groups across the Middle East.

    The Trump administration is implementing a return of sanctions and very few international businesses and enterprises will dare to risk jeopardising their relationship with the United States – the biggest and most powerful body in the financial system. Major deals are already falling apart and numerous negotiations have ended. The Iranian Regime’s Foreign Minister has been taking measures to persuade the other signatories of the deal to remain in it. However, without the United States, many are saying the deal cannot be valid.

    If the deal was to fall apart, as many believe it will, can the Iranian economy survive? It is highly unlikely as the country’s economy is already in great difficulty and has been for quite some time. Add crippling sanctions to Iran’s finance and oil transactions and there is very little hope indeed.

    At the end of last year, the people of Iran took to the streets to protest against the Iranian regime’s mismanagement of the country’s resources and economy. The widespread protests turned into anti-regime demonstrations and calls for regime-change.

    It was not just one particular demographic or social class that took to the streets – it was all sectors of society.

    People in Iran want regime change and it is the only remaining option for them if they ever want to experience freedom, democracy and human rights.

    The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the main opposition to the clerical regime, and the only viable alternative, is holding its annual gathering in Paris at the end of the month.

    On 30th June, dozens of foreign dignitaries, human rights activists, political figures and current and former officials will address tens of thousands of Iranians from around the world. Traditionally, the event has resulted in progress for the Free Iran cause and it certainly raises awareness for the issues.

    The Iranian regime is in danger at home – the public discontent is not something the regime can ever recover from, and it is losing its grip on power in the region too. Iran has committed a huge amount of resources to extending its influence in Iraq, but now Moqtada Sadr’s Saeroon alliance will knock the regime far away from where it wants to be.

    Furthermore, in Syria Iran has experienced military setbacks. It is reliant on its position in Syria. Faced with defeat from all angles, it is not a matter of if the Iranian regime will be overthrown. It is a question of when.

     
  • Masoud Dalvand 10:20 am on 15 May 2018 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , Iran Deal Withdrawl, , ,   

    The gap from top to bottom in the clerical regime of Iran 

    The gap from top to bottom in the clerical regime of Iran

    By Masoud Dalvand

    The blow of US’s withdrawal from Iran Deal and its reflections within the regime is rising every day and worsens the battles of the gangs. One of the latest examples is the conflict between the Assembly of Experts(Khobregan) and the gang of regime’s president Mullah Rouhani Because of Iran Deal and the continuation of this event.

    In this regard, on May 13, a statement was issued by the Assembly of Experts against the Rouhani and in the direction of Khamenei‘s acquittal and blaming on the Iran Deal’s disgrace and called for a Rouhani apology from the people: “It is imperative that the honorable President, honestly and explicitly, apologize to the dear people of Iran for the damage caused by the failure of ” Iran deal” for lack of comply with the red lines drawn by the Supreme Leader of the Revolution and put the experience of “Iran deal” as a light on the way of future.»

    But still -according to a proverb- the ink of this statement not dried, the authenticity of the statement was questioned by a number of members of the Assembly of Experts, and this was denounced. Among the experts, including Mullah Hashem Zadeh Harrisi, stated that “This statement is not all the Experts. The request to apologize the president for the “Iran deal” is not the opinion of the Assembly of Experts … The society is feverish … these events only cause discomfort and despair of the people … ”

    Mullah Moghtadaei was another member of the Assembly of Experts, who stated: “The opposition of Rouhani’s state inside the country, in the current situation, should not be as happy as Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu has.”

    Another expert, Mullah Abtahi, also said that the statement of the experts was not the opinion of all the members and that if I knew I would not sign the statement. And finally there were other people involved in the fight.

    Is this war and fights a continuation of the conflicts and controversies that have always been in the regime, or a new phenomenon and its own characteristics? with a little thinking about these conflicts, we see they are continuation of the same contradictions, but to another credit, we face a new quality of accumulation and congestion and the evolution of those contradictions. Why so:

    First of all, we see now that war and conflict are at the top and the highest point of the regime’s power pyramid.

    Secondly, all organs and institutions of the regime from the parliament to the Assembly of Experts and to the Revolutionary Guards, the government, the judiciary, and so on have involved.

    Thirdly, we also see the gap in these institutions. For example, in the parliament we are witnessing the clash of representatives of the two gangs. Or, in the Assembly of Experts, it was not until now that the experts took a position and made a statement, and some of its members would take a stand and speak against it.

    We see these gaps in the Rouhani’s gang and even within the state. For example, Rouhani’s adviser criticizes to his government minister, or the media criticize it from various positions.

    Is this conflict between the Experts and the government and within the limits of these two institutions above the regime? And why do we call it a fight and a gap at the head of the regime?!

    No! When we say that the struggle at the top of the regime, the war is at the point of Khamenei, which said on Wednesday (May 2, 2018): I said if you want to get the contract, take the necessary guarantees and then close them. One of the conditions I said was that the US president should sign. The respectable officials worked hard and, well, they could not. And then he added: “I do not trust these three countries (European Troika) … If you could make sure that it’s okay, of course I’m unlikely to know. If you cannot get a definitive guarantee, you will not be able to continue.

    This led to various statements in the media by Rouhani’s gang, including in the May 13 meeting, the parliament they chanted Khamenei whose accomplishment “Iran deal”, from the first to the last, was led by Khamenei and was signed. Then the Khamenei’s propagandists said that, they forced Khamenei to made such orders, but Rouhani’s government did not listen to Khamenei’s advices.

    Meanwhile, the government of Rouhani did not keep silent and issued a statement of eight articles entitled “Those who have smashed, now have been creditors instead of apologizing, do not contradict “, replied to the statement of the Assembly of Experts, denounced their position and, in addition to emphasizing Khamenei’s role, was raised. Tell us what to do, tell us what to do if we did not sign, and if we do not do it now, what to do.

    Part of this statement reads:

    “Unfortunately, those who have to apologize for their misplaced positions in the past are creditor for national achievements and are not willing to answer the question of how damaging the outrageous sanctions on the Iranian nation have been and what they have done to prevent them from timely prevention. They are never ready to speak of their inability to provide alternative ways of “Iran deal” and to apologize to the nation for their misleading approach to progress in the country. In an obvious contradiction they were worried about America’s presence in “Iran deal” and the other hand they have been as plaintiff of US’s withdrawal of Iran deal.

    In addition to the government itself, supporters of the government and other members of the Rouhani’s gang attacked the Assembly Experts. Including:

    Ali Motahhari‘s reaction to Ahmad Jannati’s letter about “Iran deal” was:

    Do you determine the religious duty of the diplomatic system or your supreme leader?

    Interestingly, the parties to the dispute, despite the fact that they are aware of the danger of the situation and read the unity’s weep of one another, cannot even temporarily establish cease-fire between themselves.

    The reason is that the fuel of this war is a dangerous situation and the prospect of the overthrow of this regime. But they are not able to stop it. Because in the current situation is not the field for compromise, the crisis bedside, in itself, promotes war, but it is important that the ruling gangs with this conflict constantly weak each other and the whole regime and pave the way for the overthrow of the religious dictatorship by the people’s uprising led by the Iranian resistance. This is the logic of history and they do not escape it.

     
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